Forecast For 'Big Emerging Markets' Optimistic

In contrast to the purveyors of economic gloom and doom, Warren J. Keegan, director of the Institute for Global Business Strategy at Pace University's Lubin School of Business, New York, expects that the world's so-called Big Emerging Markets (BEMs) -- including China, India, South Korea, and Turkey -- will soon resume growth at rates higher than the global average. Keegan sees the BEMs collectively increasing gross national product (GNP) by 80% between 1997 and 2010, compared with 47% for the entire world and 40% for the U.S. Among the BEMs, he figures China will post the highest growth rate -- 119% -- and Brazil will record the lowest -- 49%. Meanwhile, Taiwan's economy will advance 91%, India's 89%, Poland's 87%, South Korea 81%, Turkey's 80%, Mexico's 71%, Argentina's 69%, Indonesia's 63%, Hong Kong's 62%, and the Russian Federation's and South Africa's 55%.