The February employment data shows employment climbing. This data along with the recent uptick in other leading indicators tell us we should all look for the economy to slow down, but not break down, in 2014.
The February employment data is out, and the number is good. Using the BLS Household Survey data (not seasonally adjusted) we saw a 1.3% climb in employment from one year ago. This is a reasonable number; not great, but good enough to indicate that the economy is still expanding in terms of jobs. Private sector employment (derived from a different BLS payroll survey) was up 1.9% year-over-year. Government employment (also derived from the payroll survey) was down 0.2% year-over-year.
The data is encouraging as is the uptick on the most recent ITR Leading Indicator trend and the rates-of-change we derive from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Expectations survey. Throw in a resurgent S&P500 in February and the signals are telling us that we should all look for the economy to slow down, but not break down, in 2014.