Gaining a Supply Chain Edge

Given the Reality of Washington and the Snow Storms, We Are Exactly Where I Said We Would Be

Wow! I've just finished another editorial on the Congressional gridlock that takes a clear partisan position. So silly! Not sure what is worse - the folks who write the editorials or Congress. All partisan garbage.

How about me? I adopt neither a pro nor an anti position on the Obama administration, or a Democratic or Republican position. Hence, I cannot be lumped in with the partisan gridlock cry babies. Plus, one other small detail: Given the reality that Washington has yet to act on a stimulus package that really stimulates (see my previous blog post on this topic), then what I have been saying all along has proven to be correct.

Over a year ago, I made no secret of the fact that I thought the recession would bottom in June, 2009 (and it did), and that growth in employment would occur in the first quarter of 2010 (and it will.)

In spite of a terrible winter of snow and flu and the lack of a stimulus package that stimulates, I believe we will see positive employment numbers very soon. Why do I think we are starting to dig out? Please consider:

Temporary and contract employment is healthy at 9.6% above where it was in February, 2009.

Although manufacturing employment has continued to climb, at only 11.5 million workers, this is not the big news. What is big news is that the non-manufacturing sector activity in February (some 95 million workers) has climbed to 53 on the Institute for Supply Management service sector index - the highest since 2007.

Corporate America continues to be positive, with capital spending bouncing back to 9.3% above where we were in February, 2009. In addition, only 7.5% of all CEOs see their business declining in the next 12 months, as compared to 56.9% who see their business growing in the next 12 months.

Retail sales (Go Consumers, Go!!) continue to grow, with the February Retail Index coming in at 8.2% above the February, 2009 index.

In February 2010, only 36,000 jobs were lost and in fact, many economists predicted February would have added jobs, had it not been for the snowstorms.

Once again, thanks to the American worker, the American consumer and the American business leader, the economy is recovering and will shortly return to positive growth in employment and all without substantial help from Washington.

We have a very bright future ahead. So recovery is complete, it is now time for the Great Comeback (see more in this blog post). Are you ready? What are you seeing in your sector? Let's compare recovery experiences.

Jim
Tompkins Associates

TAGS: Supply Chain
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