The economy is still on track for mild economic expansion through at least the middle of 2013.
Sandy is wreaking havoc in the east. I cannot help but think of Katrina and other massive storms from over the last decade, both here and abroad. The disruption and the personal difficulties are not to be underestimated. The singular point to the blog is that we are often asked at these times whether we will change our forecast as a result of the economic impact. The answer is ‘no’. There is no need to change the U.S. economic forecast.
Regional losses for some become opportunities for others. Contractors and purveyors of blue tarps and generators are having a great surge in activity, as will paint stores, etc. The insurance companies and the government will not. In balance, the U.S. economy is on track for mild economic expansion through at least the middle of 2013.