The Coalition for a Prosperous America said that U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel imports will add thousands of jobs at domestic producers, offsetting labor losses in other industries, while economic growth will slow by a tiny percentage.
The study is from the nonprofit organization, which has supported the U.S. administration’s skepticism toward free trade.
The group estimates President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% tariffs on aluminum will add about 19,000 jobs, making job losses downstream and in other parts of the economy negligible.
The impact would hit the economy by $1.4 billion, or 8/1000th of 1% of U.S. gross domestic product, the organization said.
“The tiny tiny decline in GDP is a result of these tariffs in the medium term,” said Jeff Ferry, research director for the Coalition for a Prosperous America.
“In the longer term, I would anticipate that the effect of tariffs are positive because a longer-run analysis shows what happens to steel and aluminum industries as a result: additional production, revenue, hiring and investment.”
The study comes as many forecasts say the controversial import tariffs would largely hurt downstream sectors of the economy that use raw steel and aluminum to make consumer products such as automobiles and beverage cans.
Harbor Intelligence said on March 1 that Trump’s aluminum tariffs would boost production jobs by about 1,900, but 23,000 to 90,000 U.S. manufacturing job will be lost.
By Joe Deaux