“A traditional soft landing is not an apt descriptor,” Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab wrote to start this week. “We continue to think a roll-through of recoveries, offsetting coming weakness in areas not yet hit, is the best-case scenario for the economy.”

That nuanced assessment of the short-term outlook jives with the idea that more CFOs are — see below — in ‘defense mode.’ And it paints a fuzzy picture for leaders as the 2024 planning season picks up steam — if they’re not in line to get severely stung by a prolonged UAW strike, that is. Responding to a recent Richmond Fed survey, hundreds of CFOs said they expect to grow sales more quickly next year than in 2023 while growing their workforces. But about 40% also said they’ve already pulled back on spending because of higher interest rates. There’s a tension there that needs resolving.

And there are longer-term questions about some of the big theses driving our economy today. Can the manufacturing construction boom deliver lasting dividends? And are we on track with various elements of the energy transition? The stories below try to provide perspectives for both the coming quarter and the coming decade.

— Geert De Lombaerde