“You might even argue that the recent strength in the economy is being supported in part by businesses, consumers and governments that have outperformed their recessionary forecasts.”

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin this week outlined the case for a mild economic downturn in 2024, should there be one at all. His upbeat address to The Real Estate Roundtable centered around the idea that the U.S. economy is “much further along the path to demand normalization than much of the data would tell you” — and thus stands in pretty sharp contrast to a lot of the commentary we hear from many executives, economists and other strategists.

Behold the Blue Chip consensus of Q3 growth: Three months ago, it had just begun working its way up from zero; now it’s nearing 3.5%. Early forecasts for the last three months of 2023 are nearly as negative as those from July and bank execs reported cracks in the macro story on the same day both retail sales and industrial production data delivered positive surprises.

Still, it seems this persistent caution has helped produce many deft management strategies — such as the productivity successes described in the last story of our list below — and we often don’t have to look hard for silver linings. So what happens when the majority of leaders again turn legitimately bullish?

– Geert De Lombaerde