The 3.3% first reading of Q4 GDP growth has pushed consensus markedly toward a soft landing (or even a no landing) and early signs suggest Q1 also will deliver a decent number. One driver: Inventories have been so run down that their replenishment will help sustain growth well into 2024.

It looks as though many Corporate America C-suite members aren’t quite buying that forecast. Layoff announcements have made lots of headlines—a year ago, similar January notices proved to be relatively inconsequential—while hiring is slowing and few executive teams are committing to big capex boosts. The stories below from Nucor and Paccar are notable exceptions.

A year ago, such hedging seemed more merited; we were still digesting the Fed’s rate hikes and high inflation. Today, those factors are (or soon look to be) much more favorable to investment. Will caution today be proven prudent or overly tentative—and costly versus the competition?

— Geert De Lombaerde