The earnings reporting season now in the books reiterated several themes from the second half of 2023: Many companies in the industrial economy are still investing in growth and still trimming costs where they can while customers remain simultaneously active and cautious. As Parker Hannifin CEO Jenny Parmentier summarized at a Bank of America conference this week: “Positive sentiment but still destocking.”

One notable change from recent quarters: Quite a few executive teams were willing to say they expect an uptick in business around midyear at the earliest and Q4 at the latest. That optimism is reflected in revenue growth forecasts: FactSet researchers say analysts expect S&P 500 companies to grow their top lines 5% in 2024 and another 5.9% next year.

Which tees up this question for leaders and strategists: What will you do differently if that second-half upturn doesn’t materialize?

— Geert De Lombaerde