Another bullwhip — and then what?

The message from the stock market lately has been loud and clear: The trade war is essentially over now that the U.S. and Chinese administrations have agreed to the outlines of some sort of de-escalation. In the real economy, things continue to be much muddier and it now looks like Q2 will be marked by a bullwhip effect as some companies that had paused purchases under the most stringent tariff rates look to squeeze in all the buying they can before the expiration of the 90-day China tariffs pause.

And after that? Slower growth seems assured but it’s not clear that the economy will dip into actual recession. It’s also becoming more apparent that many executive teams aren’t feeling the need to make drastic moves. More and more, it seems, the best path forward is to largely stay the course. In a world that’s, uh, exciting, being a bit boring might be best.

— Geert De Lombaerde
 

• Report: 60% of large-company execs see no growth in ’25, more than 40% expect workers to be more productive

• Tariff pressures hit margins but few manufacturers are reshoring
 

Directions, not destinations

Peak tariff anxiety might be behind us but the shocks from earlier this year are still spreading through supply chains and business plans more broadly. In many ways, it’s a throwback to the supply-chain upheaval of a few years ago—and many C-suites are reacting as they did then by looking for efficiencies that improve their companies’ profitability foundation and safeguard a path to renewed growth.
 

• ‘Really think about optimizing for directions, not just destinations’ and other insights on guiding your business through tariffs

• Deloitte: ‘Smart’ investments are paying off in productivity and capacity gains
 

"For us, it's, you know, don't whipsaw
this thing too hard right now."

That was ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance on his team’s recent Q1 conference call talking about avoiding rash capex cuts even though things are very uncertain. The Conoco team is sticking with its production target and expects to generate $700 million in savings from integrating Marathon and generally being more efficient.
 

Six weeks later, how's it going?

Early last month, the team at Endeavor Business Intelligence surveyed hundreds of business leaders about the immediate fallout from the Trump administration’s new tariffs. Now that a month has passed, we’re checking in to see what has changed. Have tariff impacts intensified for you? Have your strategies truly shifted? Share your insights here and help us all develop a clearer picture of how businesses across industries are adapting to today’s evolving policy landscape.
 

52%

April's year-over-year drop in orders for Class 8 heavy-duty trucks

A silver lining in trucking’s expected struggles in the second half as imports slip: Excess capacity centered on port work will move into the truckload market and pressure rates. “Shippers are probably still the big winners here,” one expert says.
 

• Tariff consequences are about to hit trucking

• Surging expectations: Shipper confidence climbs for Q3
 

What we'll be watching

After earnings season, some of Wall Street’s attention shifts to conference season. Over the next few weeks, investors sitting in on fireside chats will want to hear about if and how customer activity has rebounded on the heels of the China trade war reprieve. Will CEOs and CFOs—many of whom have temporarily punted on guidance—have enough confidence in what they’re seeing to say something definitive about how the rest of 2025 might go?