Mexico's Leading Index Signals 'Sluggish But Positive' Economic Growth

By John S. McClenahen Although Mexico's GDP declined at a 1.3% annual rate during the third quarter of 2003, "continued widespread growth of the leading [economic] index suggests that the third quarter's decline in real GDP is not the beginning of a downward trend in economic activity," says the Conference Board, a New York-based business research group. "Instead, the leading index is signaling a sluggish but positive average rate of economic growth in the near term." With a 0.3% increase in November, the most recent month for which data are available, Mexico's leading index now stands at 106.6 (1990=100).

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