By John S. McClenahen While most other economists now pretty much dismiss a U.S. return to recession -- the so-called double dip -- the bearish Levy Forecast continues to put the probability of a downturn before mid-2003 at 60%. "Several things could darken the outlook in the next few weeks, and if the economy begins to contract, the vicious cycle of decline will be hard to stop before 2004," it warns. "Even if an improvement occurs, the expansion will still be fragile and may be at risk for a downturn later in the year." The economic outlook is published by the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, Mt. Kisco, New York.