The members of the Washington, D.C.-based National Association for Business Economists believe that oil prices above $100 per barrel probably would trigger a U.S. recession. But in the group's latest forecast, the economists don't see oil prices rising that high.
Thirty-four percent of the economists believe that terrorism remains the biggest short-term problem confronting the U.S. economy, up eight percentage points from 26% saying so in March of this year. Twenty-nine percent name energy as their biggest short-term economic fear; inflation is the biggest concern of 12%.
The size of the federal deficit and the poor quality of U.S. schools are the major long-term concerns of the economists.
