NAM/IW Q3 Survey: Manufacturer Outlook Still Positive, But Optimism Wanes

Survey Responses

1. How would you characterize the business outlook for your firm right now?
   1. Very positive -- 17.3%
   2. Somewhat positive -- 48.1%
   3. Somewhat negative -- 30.4%
   4. Very negative -- 4.2%
2. Over the next year, what do you expect to happen with your company's sales?
   1. Increase more than 10 percent -- 18.6%
   2. Increase 5 to 10 percent -- 23.1%
   3. Increase up to 5 percent -- 16.0%
   4. Stay about the same -- 27.9%
   5. Decrease up to 5 percent -- 6.7%
   6. Decrease 5 to 10 percent -- 5.4%
   7. Decrease more than 10 percent -- 2.2%
      Average expected increase in sales consistent with these responses = 3.2%
3. Over the next year, what do you expect to happen with prices on your company's overall product line?
   1. Increase more than 10 percent -- 2.9%
   2. Increase 5 to 10 percent -- 15.5%
   3. Increase up to 5 percent -- 42.7%
   4. Stay about the same -- 32.7%
   5. Decrease up to 5 percent -- 3.2%
   6. Decrease 5 to 10 percent -- 1.9%
   7. Decrease more than 10 percent -- 1.0%
      Average expected increase in prices consistent with these responses = 2.2%
4. Over the next year, what are your company's capital investment plans?
   1. Increase more than 10 percent -- 17.5%
   2. Increase 5 to 10 percent -- 10.4%
   3. Increase up to 5 percent -- 13.6%
   4. Stay about the same -- 40.5%
   5. Decrease up to 5 percent -- 4.2%
   6. Decrease 5 to 10 percent -- 5.2%
   7. Decrease more than 10 percent -- 8.7%
      Average expected increase in investment consistent with these responses = 1.5%
5. Over the next year, what are your plans for inventories?
   1. Increase more than 10 percent -- 3.9%
   2. Increase 5 to 10 percent -- 7.7%
   3. Increase up to 5 percent -- 14.5%
   4. Stay about the same -- 47.1%
   5. Decrease up to 5 percent -- 15.2%
   6. Decrease 5 to 10 percent -- 7.1%
   7. Decrease more than 10 percent -- 4.5%
      Average expected increase in inventories consistent with these responses = no change
6. Over the next year, what do you expect in terms of full-time employment in your company?
   1. Increase more than 10 percent -- 5.9%
   2. Increase 5 to 10 percent -- 9.8%
   3. Increase up to 5 percent -- 27.4%
   4. Stay about the same -- 44.3%
   5. Decrease up to 5 percent -- 8.1%
   6. Decrease 5 to 10 percent -- 2.6%
   7. Decrease more than 10 percent -- 2.0%
      Average expected increase in full-time employment consistent with these responses = 1.4%
7. Over the next year, what do you expect to happen to employee wages (excluding non-wage compensation such as benefits) in your company?
   1. Increase more than 5 percent -- 0.3%
   2. Increase 3 to 5 percent -- 19.4%
   3. Increase up to 3 percent -- 51.9%
   4. Stay about the same -- 26.8%
   5. Decrease up to 3 percent -- 0.6%
   6. Decrease 3 to 5 percent -- 0%
   7. Decrease more than 5 percent -- 1.0%
      Average expected increase in wages consistent with these responses = 1.1%
8. Over the next year, what do you expect to happen with the level of exports from your company?
   1. Increase more than 5 percent -- 18.8%
   2. Increase 3 to 5 percent -- 14.9%
   3. Increase up to 3 percent -- 12.3%
   4. Stay about the same -- 48.7%
   5. Decrease up to 3 percent -- 1.6%
   6. Decrease 3 to 5 percent -- 1.0%
   7. Decrease more than 5 percent -- 2.6%
      Average expected increase in exports consistent with these responses = 0.4%
9. Looking at the current business environment, which of the following is your top concern?
   (Respondents rated each of these concerns with "1" being the top concern and "8" being their least concern. The number reflects the average score, with lower scores indicating greater concerns.)
   1. Taxes -- 4.03
   2. Regulation -- 3.22
   3. Economy -- 1.96
   4. Cost of Raw Materials -- 3.50
   5. Attracting and Retaining Quality Workforce -- 4.83
   6. Insurance Costs -- 5.06
   7. Energy Costs -- 5.11
   8. Other -- 5.63
10. Where is your business primarily located?
    1. Northeast -- 18.5%
    2. South -- 16.8%
    3. Midwest -- 53.5%
    4. West -- 11.2%
11. What is your company's primary industrial classification?
    1. Food manufacturing -- 3.2%
    2. Beverages and tobacco products -- no responses
    3. Textile mills or textile products -- 1.9%
    4. Apparel and allied products -- 0.3%
    5. Leather and allied products -- 0.3%
    6. Wood products -- 3.8%
    7. Paper and paper products -- 2.6%
    8. Printing and related activities -- 1.3%
    9. Petroleum and coal products -- 1.0%
    10. Chemicals -- 5.1%
    11. Plastics and rubber products -- 9.6%
    12. Nonmetallic mineral products -- 0.6%
    13. Primary metals, or fabricated metal products -- 30.8%
    14. Machinery -- 12.8%
    15. Computer and electronic products -- 2.6%
    16. Electrical equipment and appliances -- 3.2%
    17. Transportation equipment -- 3.8%
    18. Furniture and related products -- 1.9%
    19. Miscellaneous manufacturing -- 15.1%
12. What is the size of your firm (e.g., the parent company, not your establishment)?
    1. Less than 50 employees -- 20.6%
    2. 50 to 499 employees -- 56.6%
    3. 500 or more employees -- 22.8%
13. What are the primary drivers of your company's growth and future strategies?
    (Respondents were able to check all that apply to their business. Responses exceed 100 percent.)
    1. Stronger domestic economy, sales of our products -- 74.9%
    2. Increased international sales -- 39.5%
    3. Increased efficiencies in the production process -- 42.4%
    4. New product development -- 49.8%
    5. Recent mergers or acquisitions -- 6.4%
    6. Other -- 3.2%
14. What are the biggest challenges you are facing right now?
    (Respondents were able to check all that apply to their business. Responses exceed 100 percent.)
    1. Weaker domestic economy, sales of our products -- 64.9%
    2. Increased international competition -- 20.9%
    3. Challenges with access to capital or other forms of financing -- 6.1%
    4. Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulation, etc.) -- 60.8%
    5. Rising energy and raw material costs for our products -- 51.4%
    6. Other -- 8.4%
15. Do you feel that government involvement is impeding your ability to grow your operations right now?
    1. Yes -- 79.4%
    2. No -- 10.0%
    3. Uncertain -- 10.6%