What Do All the Economic Headlines Mean?

April 19, 2013
Despite what the headlines may or may not say, we conclude that the US is still on track for a mild recession, just not yet.

I have been reading various headlines and articles announcing a near-term softening and potential swoon in the U.S. economy.  Other news pieces have dealt with the decline in oil prices, and others with Japan’s in aggressive quantitative easing.  There is no lack of economic news; the problem is what does it all mean?

The U.S. economy is going to shift to the backside of the business cycle, but not yet.  The latest input from the US Leading Indicator, put out by the Conference Board, did indeed fall in March.  Remember that this is a leading indicator, and the downside pressure applies to later this year – not now.

Oil prices have slid of late, which may be good news for consumers.  I said “may be” because gasoline prices tend to be sticky on the way down,  In addition, OPEC is thinking about holding a special meeting to discuss the recent decline in prices.  The topic of discussion will of course be the reduction in the world’s oil supply.  Their power is not quite what it used to be given the increased oil output in the U.S. 

Japan is looking to jump-start their economy through exports.  The massive quantitative easing is officially not currency manipulation, but in effect that is exactly what it is.  A cheaper yen means more exports out of Japan and therefore a boost to their domestic economy.  This is bad news for firms competing against Japanese products.

Looking through all the recent economic activity, we conclude that the US is still on track for a mild recession, just not yet.

Popular Sponsored Recommendations

Discover How an Eye Tracking Study Improves Training Procedures

Oct. 29, 2023
Did you know that your training processes can be streamlined by visualizing and analyzing key skills within your employee base? Find out how we use eye tracking to capture advanced...

State of Sales Report

Sept. 12, 2023
Discover the latest insights driving productivity and efficiency for more than 7,700 sales leaders and professionals.

Are You Positioned To Tackle Supply Chain Risk?

Sept. 20, 2023
Supply chain disruption is here to stay, but you can keep ahead of potential issues — and identify new opportunities — by regularly assessing your suppliers. Download our supplier...

The Guide to Balancing Citizen Development and Governance in Manufacturing Operations

Sept. 19, 2023
Platforms with no-code capabilities provide a competitive advantage for manufacturers responding to rapidly changing disruptions and demands. This guide helps manufacturers maintain...

Voice your opinion!

To join the conversation, and become an exclusive member of IndustryWeek, create an account today!