Economist Hikes Odds Of Y2K Recession

The anticipated Year 2000 (Y2K) computer-date problem has a 70% chance of triggering a worldwide recession that will start in January, 2000, last at least 12 months, and be as severe as the 1973-74 downturn caused by the oil crisis, warns Edward Yardeni, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Securities, New York. After earlier projecting the likelihood of such a global recession at 60%, Yardeni said he was increasing the odds because of the lack of leadership on the Y2K problem from governments of industrialized nations. He called the response of the U.S. government, in particular, "dangerously inadequate." Yardeni announced his revised projection at a Washington press conference hosted by the National Assn. of Manufacturers last week.