A significant consolidation of Web portal giants, as well as a dramatic Internet stock correction loom for the online industry in 1999, predicts International Data Corp. (IDC), an information technology market research firm located in Framingham, Mass. These market developments are among IDC's annual predictions of key Internet trends, strategies, and events that will reshape business and society, prognosticated by Frank Gens, IDC's senior vice president, Internet research. Some of these predictions include:
- Yahoo! will partner with TimeWarner or CBS; Microsoft will purchase a major portal; a global financial services company such as Citicorp or Wells Fargo will buy E*trade.
- Web access will become available in many retail stores, while live salespeople can be reached through retail Web sites.
- PC prices will drop to the $400 price range, and finally penetrate more than half of U.S. homes.
- Internet usage will rocket to 147 million users, larger than the population of Japan.
- Online spending will total nearly $1 trillion by 2002.
- Disruptions from Y2K will be as low as 0.2% for business-critical applications.
- NBC buying more of CNET and Snap.
- Compaq selling off AltaVista.
- Infoseek merging with Lycos.
- 50% of U.S. households who are online will buy online.
- Virtual sites will become voice-enabled to give customers live sales assistance and customer support.
- Personalization will be the ante for successful commerce sites.
- Reaching international customers will become a critical success factor.
- More than 3 million Net TVs will be installed and activated.
- Home networking will roll out.