What if we’re already into the next cycle?

Anna Wong, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, last week took a view of recent labor data revisions—which lowered the 12 monthly reports through March by 911,000 jobs—that made me sit up. The weaker growth, she said, suggests the U.S. economy went into recession about a year ago. The flip side? It’s quite possible we’re now very early in a new business cycle just as the Fed is again cutting interest rates. That, Wong said on Bloomberg Radio (starting at roughly 10:30 of this recording), tees up a “pretty sharp recovery”—which speaks to upbeat observations shared by several executives at recent conferences.

— Geert De Lombaerde

 
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Being present while being under pressure

Even if Wong has nailed the upward direction of the economy today, leaders won’t be allowed to take their collective eye off the ball. Inflationary pressures won’t go away, especially with rate cuts, and above-average risks will persist in the labor market and geopolitical arena. After the pandemic and the supply-chain crunch, it’s again time for the C-suite to level up.

 
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“I think now the retailers themselves 
are realizing that this tariff regime
is for real. A lot of the prior regime,
they were exempted either in total
or by category. And they’re now living it.”

That’s Stanley Black & Decker CFO Pat Hallinan talking at the recent
Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference about plans to raise prices. 
Players in some industries adjacent to Stanley’s tools, he added,
have been pushing harder on price for a while, which has led
to some fatigue among customers. But, he added, “I don’t
sense those same dynamics in our space.”
 

Prepare to get uncomfortable

Another idea to chew on if that “pretty sharp recovery” starts to take shape: If you’ve been hesitating to invest in artificial intelligence, other technologies or capacity expansion more generally, you’re likely behind. As off-putting as that idea might feel to contemplate today, it’ll be more uncomfortable to watch competitors pull away during the next upswing.
 

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65.0%

The share of respondents who recently told the National Association
of Manufacturers they have a positive outlook for their companies

That’s a jump of nearly 10 percentage points from NAM’s Q2 survey. 
We’re in the camp that prioritizes hard data over sentiment
surveys but a pop like this is worth noting. Respondents said
they expect production to grow 2.5% over the next
12 months, up from 1.4% three months ago.
 

What we’ll be watching

Can we turn the focus back on policy uncertainty for the next little bit? Even upbeat CEOs say it remains the biggest hurdle to the return of strong growth and nearly eight out of 10 NAM survey respondents named it a top concern. An extra measure of clarity in the next few weeks will do a lot of good for a lot of 2026 plans.