Global Energy Use Seen Rising 57% Through 2030

May 23, 2007

Coal consumption, which grows an average annual rate of 2.2%, is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide.

Between 2004 and 2030, world energy consumption is expected to climb by 57%, largely on surging demand in parts of swiftly developing Asia, the U.S. government reported last week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its energy outlook projection for 2007 that energy demand would experience its most rapid growth in nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Demand would be particularly high in non-OECD Asia, where strong projected economic growth drives the increase in energy use, the EIA said in its report "International Energy Outlook 2007."

Despite high world oil and natural gas prices, demand will keep growing. But rising oil prices were seen as restraining growth in demand for petroleum and other liquids fuels after 2015. Their share of overall energy use is expected to fall from 38% in 2004 to a projected 34% in 2030. Liquids consumption was still expected to grow strongly, however, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030.

The U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, and the booming economies of China and India account for nearly half of the projected growth in world liquids use, the report said. To meet demand, the supply in 2030 is projected to be 35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day higher than the 2004 level of 83 million barrels per day.

A projected 21 million barrels per day increase in production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a six million barrels per day increase in non-OPEC countries would be needed to satisfy demand.

Other report highlights include:

Coal consumption, which grows an average annual rate of 2.2%, is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide. Coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample coal resources, especially in coal-rich countries like China, India, and the United States.
World nuclear power capacity is projected to rise from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481 gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries, including Germany and Belgium, have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced.
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.