Supply Chain

The Myth of China's Rise and America's Fall

Jan. 20, 2011

The visit this week of the Chinese Premiere to Washington is putting the U.S. / China relationship front and center.

Media reports will state that the rise of China is unstoppable and that American decline is already well underway marked especially by the precipitous fall of U.S. manufacturing.

But let's take a step back and look at the past 110 years to see if this is actually true.

According to figures gathered from the World Bank and the Statistical Abstract of the United States:

In 1900,

The United States was already the richest country in the world.

The U.S. share of global GDP was about 18%

China's share of global GDP was close to 12%

Manufacturing in the United States accounted for 19% of all economic activity.

By 2010,

The United States remained the richest country in the world.

The U.S. share of global GDP had increased to 23%

China's share of global GDP was about 10%

Manufacturing in the United States accounted for 20% of all economic activity.

So, in the last 110 years, America's wealth and economic power- relative to that of the rest of the world- has risen, while China's has fallen.

Further, U.S. manufacturing activity is a bit higher than it was when the first American Century began.

Given a time frame of decades- rather than merely quarters- we could rightly conclude that the death of America's ascendancy and manufacturing, along with the inevitable rise of China, have all been greatly exaggerated.

About the Author

Andrew R. Thomas Blog | Associate Professor of Marketing and International Business

Andrew R. Thomas, Ph.D., is associate professor of marketing and international business at the University of Akron; and, a member of the core faculty at the International School of Management in Paris, France.

He is a bestselling business author/editor, whose 23 books include, most recently, American Shale Energy and the Global Economy: Business and Geopolitical Implications of the Fracking Revolution, The Customer Trap: How to Avoid the Biggest Mistake in Business, Global Supply Chain Security, The Final Journey of the Saturn V, and Soft Landing: Airline Industry Strategy, Service and Safety.

His book The Distribution Trap was awarded the Berry-American Marketing Association Prize for the Best Marketing Book of 2010. Another work, Direct Marketing in Action, was a finalist for the same award in 2008.

Andrew is founding editor-in-chief of the Journal of Transportation Security and a regularly featured analyst for media outlets around the world.

He has traveled to and conducted business in 120 countries on all seven continents.