[ARCHIVE] Make Your Move

The Big Deal About The Deal

Oct. 18, 2013

The deal over the shutdown is good near-term news, but doesn’t change long-term economic realities.

I am as happy as you are that the US Congress and the president reached a deal that allowed the debt ceiling to be temporarily dealt with and the government to be temporarily funded. I am also happy that the political theater did not last more than three weeks, which is what we anticipated.

So is this a big deal? No, it is not. You know as well as I do that all they did was to kick the can down the road, again. This will buy Congress enough time to work out a more or less semi-functional solution that will not fundamentally change anything. Thus we are still on track with our forecast for recession in 2014, 2019, and the Great Depression of 2030.

The deal does not alter any of the warning signs for 2014 that we have presented in the ITR Trends Report or in the ITR Advisor. The problems, irritants, and headwinds remain in place. Housing, automobile production, and key leading indicator trends are still pointing to troubles next year. Don’t let the optimism of the moment carry into tomorrow. Please be sure to have your budget reflect the reality of a mildly negative second-half-2014 if you are positively correlated to the economy.

About the Author

Alan Beaulieu Blog | President

One of the country’s most informed economists, Alan Beaulieu is a principal of the ITR Economics where he serves as President. ITR predicts future economic trends with 94.7% accuracy rate and 60 years of correct calls. In his keynotes, Alan delivers clear, comprehensive action plans and tools for capitalizing on business cycle fluctuations and outperforming your competition--whether the economy is moving up, down, or in a recession.

Since 1990, he has been consulting with companies throughout the US, Europe, and Asia on how to forecast, plan, and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis. Alan is also the Senior Economic Advisor to NAW, Contributing Editor for INDUSTRYWEEK, and the Chief Economist for HARDI.

Alan is co-author, along with his brother Brian, of the book MAKE YOUR MOVE, and has written numerous articles on economic analysis. He makes up to 150 appearances each year, and his keynotes and seminars have helped thousands of business owners and executives capitalize on emerging trends.

Prior to joining ITR Economics, Alan was a principal in a steel fabrication company and also in a software development company.