Forecast by the Headlines at Your Own Peril

Jan. 29, 2013
Positive headlines are welcome, but they do not accurately portray long-term trends.

Monday’s headline was all about the better-than-anticipated durable goods numbers.  The fiscal cliff and projections of economic disaster were all we heard less than a month ago; now there are reports touting a stronger economy in the second half of 2013.  The quick switch underscores the perils of using headlines to forecast where your business is heading next. 

The increase in durable goods new orders is indeed good news.  The rebound is consistent with our projections of improved business-to-business activity in 2013.  Expect the first half of the year to be busier than the latter half. 

Regular readers know that we utilize our proprietary cyclical theories, endogenous trends, and key leading indicators.  Two of these indicators are suggesting that optimism regarding a stronger second half of the year is ill-founded.  The US Leading Indicator 1/12 rate-of-change and the Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 rate-of-change are both signaling that the US economy will be slowing down later this year.

I thought you might like to know that we have computed our accuracy rate for 2012.  Our forecast accuracy for four quarters out for industries is 96.2%.  Despite all the uncertainties, fears and misleading headlines, through ITR Economics™ you can indeed know what economic changes will be impacting your company.

About the Author

Alan Beaulieu Blog | President

One of the country’s most informed economists, Alan Beaulieu is a principal of the ITR Economics where he serves as President. ITR predicts future economic trends with 94.7% accuracy rate and 60 years of correct calls. In his keynotes, Alan delivers clear, comprehensive action plans and tools for capitalizing on business cycle fluctuations and outperforming your competition--whether the economy is moving up, down, or in a recession.

Since 1990, he has been consulting with companies throughout the US, Europe, and Asia on how to forecast, plan, and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis. Alan is also the Senior Economic Advisor to NAW, Contributing Editor for INDUSTRYWEEK, and the Chief Economist for HARDI.

Alan is co-author, along with his brother Brian, of the book MAKE YOUR MOVE, and has written numerous articles on economic analysis. He makes up to 150 appearances each year, and his keynotes and seminars have helped thousands of business owners and executives capitalize on emerging trends. 

Prior to joining ITR Economics, Alan was a principal in a steel fabrication company and also in a software development company.

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