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Looking Ahead to 2013: A Theoretical Economic Moment

Oct. 2, 2012

Our projection of stability to mild rise in early 2013 is not driven by the slowdown (soft landing) in US Industrial Production that ended earlier this year. Instead, our forecast is based on business cycle theory.

Alan Beaulieu Blog

A friend recently asked whether a “soft landing” should be followed by a “soft recovery” especially given the use of sinusoidal curves (sine waves) in describing economic cycles.

There certainly could be a soft recovery following a soft landing but not because of the slope of the downturn. Our projection of stability to mild rise in early 2013 is not driven by the slowdown (soft landing) in U.S. Industrial Production that began in April 2011 and ended in April 12. Think in terms of a ball hitting the ground at a certain angle. It will have the same slope going up only if there is no spin on the ball. There seems to be plenty of "spin" and "spit" being applied at the moment.

Our forecast is based on business cycle theory, a certain set of assumptions regarding Federal Reserve Board action, Congressional action, and the time that it takes for those initiatives to impact the economy. In short, we have estimated what the “spin” on the ball will be in 2013. Surprises do happen and radical changes can occur, so we encourage you to keep current through our publications and this blog.

About the Author

Alan Beaulieu Blog | President

One of the country’s most informed economists, Alan Beaulieu is a principal of the ITR Economics where he serves as President. ITR predicts future economic trends with 94.7% accuracy rate and 60 years of correct calls. In his keynotes, Alan delivers clear, comprehensive action plans and tools for capitalizing on business cycle fluctuations and outperforming your competition--whether the economy is moving up, down, or in a recession.

Since 1990, he has been consulting with companies throughout the US, Europe, and Asia on how to forecast, plan, and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis. Alan is also the Senior Economic Advisor to NAW, Contributing Editor for INDUSTRYWEEK, and the Chief Economist for HARDI.

Alan is co-author, along with his brother Brian, of the book MAKE YOUR MOVE, and has written numerous articles on economic analysis. He makes up to 150 appearances each year, and his keynotes and seminars have helped thousands of business owners and executives capitalize on emerging trends.

Prior to joining ITR Economics, Alan was a principal in a steel fabrication company and also in a software development company.