Reasons to be Optimistic

Aug. 29, 2012
Negative news abounds, but the economy continued to show positive gains

I was listening to a local talk radio program while driving home from the office the other day.  Caller after caller discussed how bad things were in the economy and even the host, a generally upbeat and optimistic man, sounded down. The sentiment was further expressed in today’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey, which fell to the lowest level since November 2011. How is the pessimism justified?

What consumers say about the economy and what their actions show are different. While expectations are low, annual Retail Sales adjusted for inflation equal the pre-recession peak. Restaurant Retail Sales are at record levels and growing, a sign that consumers feel comfortable enough with their financial situation to spend money on simple luxuries. The rising employment trend suggests even more spending in the future.

Employment has been on the forefront of economic news for much of the past four years. The unemployment rate has been stubbornly high and many perceive jobs are hard to come by. But, in reality, the employment situation is faring better than one might imagine. The private sector has added 3.9 million jobs since employment reached a low in July 2010. In fact, that averages to 164,000 jobs per month. By comparison, during the expansion years earlier this decade, jobs were added at an average of 94,000 per month.

To be fair, there is still a long way for the US economy to go. Housing is well below pre-recession levels; there are still some 13 million Americans unemployed; and Europe still looms large. However, the economy is taking steps to solve these problems. To move a mountain, one must first begin by moving small stones.  For three years, we have been chipping away at the mountain of slow economic activity. ITR Economics is predicting a mild recession in 2014, but our long-term outlook is for general growth through 2017. Leading with a positive attitude will be important to navigating the next year-and-a-half of political uncertainty and counterbalancing overly negative news reports. 

About the Author

Alan Beaulieu Blog | President

One of the country’s most informed economists, Alan Beaulieu is a principal of the ITR Economics where he serves as President. ITR predicts future economic trends with 94.7% accuracy rate and 60 years of correct calls. In his keynotes, Alan delivers clear, comprehensive action plans and tools for capitalizing on business cycle fluctuations and outperforming your competition--whether the economy is moving up, down, or in a recession.

Since 1990, he has been consulting with companies throughout the US, Europe, and Asia on how to forecast, plan, and increase their profits based on business cycle trend analysis. Alan is also the Senior Economic Advisor to NAW, Contributing Editor for INDUSTRYWEEK, and the Chief Economist for HARDI.

Alan is co-author, along with his brother Brian, of the book MAKE YOUR MOVE, and has written numerous articles on economic analysis. He makes up to 150 appearances each year, and his keynotes and seminars have helped thousands of business owners and executives capitalize on emerging trends. 

Prior to joining ITR Economics, Alan was a principal in a steel fabrication company and also in a software development company.

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