Next to China, Brazil is the most closely watched of the world's developing markets. But the heads of two of Washington's most powerful business federations currently see Brazil's economy going in quite different directions. "Brazil is already moving into recession," says Jerry J. Jasinowski, president of the National Assn. of Manufacturers. On the other hand, Thomas Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, sees significance in the fact that the U.S. took the lead in an International Monetary Fund bailout of Brazil's economy. "Western governments will do what it takes to keep Brazil from going in the can because they [the Brazilians] are the spin center of what we are trying to do" to encourage freer enterprise.