Onward and Upward

July 29, 2012
The business community seems to be feeling uncertain about the next few months. Many of you are no doubt having a good year with sales tracking above year-ago levels, and yet there is a nagging doubt about the rest of 2012. The media does not help as the drumbeat regarding Europe and a faltering U.S. economy never seems to stop. The reality is that the U.S. economy, as measured by U.S. Industrial Production, will be move onward and upward in the second half of 2012.

The business community seems to be feeling uncertain about the next few months. Many of you are no doubt having a good year with sales tracking above year-ago levels, and yet there is a nagging doubt about the rest of 2012. The media does not help as the drumbeat regarding Europe and a faltering U.S. economy never seems to stop. The reality is that the U.S. economy, as measured by U.S. Industrial Production, will be move onward and upward in the second half of 2012.

The June U.S. Industrial Production rates-of-change are moving higher, and there are internal indications that the annual year-over-year comparison will be improving through at least the near term. Readers tied to the industrial side of the economy will be busy through the rest of the year.

Markit’s flash report showed the Purchasing Managers Index tracking above 51 and, that means economic expansion will continue, albeit at a slower pace in 2013. Remember that changes in the Purchasing Managers Index do not reflect an immediate change in the speed or direction of the U.S. Economy. Viewing the Purchasing Managers Index as a leading indicator provides an external indication that we are on track with our outlook for the rest of this year.

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