IEA Forecasts for Energy Demand in India, China

Nov. 8, 2007
China will be largest emitter of greenhouse gas in 2007; India will be third by 2015.

The International Energy Agency's 2007 World Energy Outlook has released its predictions based on current energy consumption trends for India and China. They are also based on an assumption of economic growth in both countries of 6% per year on average for the 2005-2030 period.

Findings regarding China are:

  • China will surpass the U.S. to become the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions this year.
  • China's per capita emissions in 2030 are only 40% of those of the U.S.
  • China's energy demand will surpass that of the U.S. soon after 2010.
  • Chinese energy demand will grow by 3.2% every year and double between 2005-2030.
  • Chinese oil demand for transport quadruples between 2005-2030.
  • New vehicle sales in China exceed those of the U.S. by 2015.
  • Oil production in China peaks at 3.9 million barrels per day "early in the next decade."
  • China needs to add 1,300 gigawatts to its electricity-generating capacity, more than the total installed capacity currently in the United States.
  • To meet demand on current trends, China needs to invest $3.7 trillion in energy infrastructure between 2005-2030.
  • Each dollar invested in more efficient electrical appliances saves $3.50 of investment in electricity supply.
  • Chinese investment in electrical appliance or vehicle efficiency would reduce emissions around the world because the country is a net exporter of these products.

Finding regarding India are:

  • India becomes the world's third-biggest emitter by about 2015.
  • Indian energy demand is set to double between 2005-2030 and grows on average by 3.6% over this period per year.
  • The number of Indian relying on biomass for cooking and heating drops from 668 million in 2005 to about 470 million in 2030.
  • The share of the population with access to electricity rises from 62% to 96% by 2030.
  • Indian power generation capacity more than triples by 2030, with 400 gigawatts more than in 2005 -- the equivalent of the installed capacity of Japan, South Korea and Australia.
  • To meet demand on current trends, India needs to invest $1.25 trillion in energy infrastructure.

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2007

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