UBS Warburg: Expect Upward Revision To Second-Quarter GDP

ByJohn S. McClenahen On Aug. 29 the U.S. Commerce Department is slated to release the first of two revisions to second-quarter 2002 GDP data. Look for the 1.1% annual rate of growth reported on July 31 to be raised just a bit. Maury Harris, chief U.S. economist at UBS Warburg LLC, New York, expects the new rate to be about 1.35%. He figures that a higher rate of inventory accumulation than originally anticipated will add half a percentage point to GDP and that stronger-than-first-reported retail sales in June will add a tenth of a percentage point. However, he expects lower construction numbers to subtract three tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth. The net: "an upward revision of around a quarter point."