September Trade Numbers Are Positive -- And Misleading

Jan. 13, 2005
By John S. McClenahen U.S. exports have not suddenly become more competitive in world markets. Nor has the U.S. dollar decreased dramatically in value. Rather, September's stunning $8.4 billion decline in the U.S. goods and services trade deficit to ...
ByJohn S. McClenahen U.S. exports have not suddenly become more competitive in world markets. Nor has the U.S. dollar decreased dramatically in value. Rather, September's stunning $8.4 billion decline in the U.S. goods and services trade deficit to $18.7 billion from August's $27.1 billion was a result of one of those fabled nonrecurring items. In this case, on the services side of the ledger, reinsurance claims associated with the Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington lowered the level of U.S. imports in September by $11 billion, says Maury Harris, chief U.S. economist at UBS Warburg LLC, New York. "Excluding that transaction . . . the trade gap actually widened from $27.1 billion to $29.7 billion," Harris figures. The U.S. trade deficit in goods grew by $1.8 billion between August and September, "worse than initially assumed in the third-quarter GDP report," notes Gerald D. Cohen, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch & Co., New York. Indeed, in September there were lots of minuses among U.S. exports as foreign demand dampened for manufactured products. Capital goods, industrial supplies and materials, consumer goods, and autos all posted declines of at least $300 million, reports the U.S. Commerce Dept.'s Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Based on [the] data, we now believe third-quarter GDP will be revised down to a 1.5% decline from the originally reported 0.4% decline," says Cohen.

Popular Sponsored Recommendations

3D Printing a More Efficient Factory Floor

Nov. 16, 2023
Today’s additive manufacturing platforms make it simple to print a wide range of high-performing industrial parts as soon as possible and right where you need them — unlocking...

Discrete and Process Manufacturing 2024 Trends and Outlook for North America

Oct. 29, 2023
Manufacturers are reaping the benefits of automation and cloud-based solutions. Discover what is driving today's industry trends and how they can shape your growth priorities ...

7 Crucial Steps to Improve Your OT Security

Oct. 23, 2023
Enhance OT security in manufacturing and production. Uncover the crucial steps to safeguard your operational technology. Protect against evolving threats and bridge the IT-OT ...

Digitally Transforming Data and Processes With Product Lifecycle Management

Oct. 29, 2023
Manufacturers face increasing challenges in product development as they strive to consistently deliver improved results. Discover how industry leaders are improving time-to-market...

Voice your opinion!

To join the conversation, and become an exclusive member of IndustryWeek, create an account today!