Industrial Country Growth Seen Slowing

From a 3.2% rate of advance in the fourth quarter of 2004, economic growth among industrialized countries -- a group that includes the U.S., Japan, and Europe -- will gradually slow to 2.65% in the first quarter of 2006 before beginning a slow recovery to 2.72% by the fourth quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2007, predicts the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, an Arlington, Va.-based business research and public policy group.

Growth among the world's economically developing nations -- a group that includes China, India, Latin America and Pacific Rim countries other than Japan -- is expected to slow also but then make a relatively robust recovery. From a 4.9% rate in the fourth quarter of 2004, growth is forecast to fall to 2.7% in the first quarter of 2006 and then rise to 4.2% by the first three months of 2007. "Our forecast for the growth path of the developing economies is guided by our belief that China and possibly India are poised to undergo growth corrections," explains alliance economist Cliff Waldman.

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