China's Hard Landing

March 1, 2011
If they are to be believed, the ruling Communist Party of China has said it wants to slow down growth. Clearly, rising inflation has something to do with it But might there be other reasons as well? Could it be the meager 1.7% margins China earns on ...

If they are to be believed, the ruling Communist Party of China has said it wants to slow down growth. Clearly, rising inflation has something to do with it

But might there be other reasons as well?

Could it be the meager 1.7% margins China earns on exports?

Or, maybe it's the looming banking crisis, where some credible estimates have the number of bad or underperforming loans as high as 60%, while a real estate bubble looks ready to burst at any moment?

Possibly it is the growing weight of the bloated, state-supported enterprises that, for decades now, have consumed greater amounts of resources with little to show for it.

For me, it seems they are trying to lower the expectations of their population, of which 60 million live like they do in France; 600 million live on between $2 - $6 a day; and, 400 million live on less than $2 a day.

With demands for reform, transparency, and open government on the move around the world, maybe the Communists are beginning to realize that their days may very well be numbered.

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