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Economists Expect US Recession, Above-Target Inflation This Year

March 28, 2023
More than two-thirds of respondents to a semiannual survey see inflation remaining above 4% at the end of this year.

The United States will likely enter a recession this year and face high inflation well into 2024, a majority of economists predicted in their response to a semiannual survey.

More than two-thirds of respondents to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Policy Survey also see inflation remaining above 4% at the end of this year.

The survey summarized the responses of 217 NABE members and was conducted between March 2 and March 10, the organization said in a statement.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised rates 4.75 percentage points in a bid to tackle rising inflation, which reached its highest level in decades last year.

Price rises slowed slightly to an annual level of 6.0% in February, which is well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.

Amid the gloomy economic forecast, there was also some good news, with just 5% of respondents believing the U.S. is currently in the midst of a recession, "far fewer" than the 19% in its previous economic survey, the NABE president Julia Coronado said in a statement.

Economists also slightly raised the chances of the Fed achieving a so-called "soft landing" -- bringing down inflation while avoiding a recession -- from 27% in August to 30% in March this year.

Copyright 2023, Agence France-Presse

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