The Economy

Boeing: Global Aircraft Market Will Grow to $4 Trillion

June 16, 2011

All signs point to 'healthy long-term demand.'

The global market for commercial aircraft is ready for takeoff.

That's the conclusion of Boeing's annual analysis of the commercial aviation market, which the company released June 16 in Paris.

Boeing forecasts a $4 trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years, with a significant increase in forecasted deliveries.

The Boeing analysis projects the market for new passenger airplanes and freighters to be 33,500 between 2011 and 2030.

A Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental takes off from Paine Field in Everett, Wash., for its first test flight in March. In its latest global forecast, Boeing estimates that the market for large aircraft such as the 747-8 will be $270 billion.
"The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel -- including economic growth, world trade and liberalization -- all point to a healthy long-term demand."

Passenger traffic is expected to grow at a 5.1% annual rate over the long-term, and the world fleet is expected to double by 2030, according to the Boeing outlook.

The single-aisle market will continue to see strong demand around the world and is expected to increase its share of the market, according to Boeing, which expects fleet composition to shift to 70% single-aisle jets by 2030.

Emerging Markets Flying High

Growth in China, India and other emerging markets will lead to a more balanced airplane demand worldwide, according to the Boeing outlook.

China, which has experienced double-digit growth in gross domestic product in recent years, will grow at 7% per annum, while South Asia, which includes India, will grow at 7.1%, according to the Boeing forecast.

Asia Pacific likely will need the most new airplanes over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion.

Europe, North America Will Replace Aging Fleets

European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models. Boeing predicts that 94% of the European fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011.

The continued growth in long-haul connections will fuel the need for new twin-aisle airplanes due to the increase in new nonstop markets, according to Boeing. With 1,400 deliveries, twin-aisle airplanes will make up 19% of the total European deliveries during the forecast period.

"While passengers are getting what they want -- more frequency and nonstop service -- rising and volatile fuel prices are expected to continue to challenge the industry," Boeing said in a news release.
Boeing projects the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,760 to 3,500 airplanes.

Additions to the fleet will include 970 new-production freighters (market value of $250 billion) and 1,990 airplanes converted from passenger models.

Josh Cable | Former Senior Editor

Former Senior Editor Josh Cable covered innovation issues -- including trends and best practices in R&D, process improvement and product development. He also reported on the best practices of the most successful companies and executives in the world of transportation manufacturing, which encompasses the aerospace, automotive, rail and shipbuilding sectors.

Josh also led the IndustryWeek Manufacturing Hall of Fame, IW’s annual tribute to the most influential executives and thought leaders in U.S. manufacturing history.

Before joining IndustryWeek, Josh was the editor-in-chief of Penton Media’s Government Product News and Government Procurement. He also was an award-winning beat reporter for several small newspapers in Northeast Ohio.

Josh received his BFA in creative writing from Bowling Green University, and continued his professional development through course-work at Ohio University and Cuyahoga Community College.

A lifelong resident of the Buckeye State, Josh currently lives in the Tremont neighborhood of Cleveland. When the weather cooperates, you’ll find him riding his bike to work, exercising his green thumb in the backyard or playing ultimate Frisbee.