More Than A 'Soft Patch'?

April 21, 2005
Could the U.S. economy, again apparently in a "soft patch," could be headed for a slow slide toward recession? Most economists are not thinking or mentioning the "R" word. But there is reason for pause. The Conference Board's index of leading economic ...

Could the U.S. economy, again apparently in a "soft patch," could be headed for a slow slide toward recession?

Most economists are not thinking or mentioning the "R" word. But there is reason for pause. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators for the U.S., a measure that previews economic activity for the next three to six months, fell four-tenths of a percentage point in March. Falling a tenth of a percent more than expected, the index now stands at 115.1 (1996=100). In February of this year, the index rose a tenth of a percent, and in January it fell three-tenths.

Just two of the ten indicators that comprise the index were positive in March. They were manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, and the interest rate spread. The other eight -- including average weekly manufacturing hours and manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods -- were negative.

With more weakness than strength among the indicators, the leading index has been just about flat for the past five months. "The recent flatness of the leading index, compared to its long-term trend of 1.5% growth, is consistent with the [U.S.] economy continuing to expand in the near term, but more slowly than its long-term average rate," says the Conference Board, a New York-based business research group.

About the Author

John McClenahen | Former Senior Editor, IndustryWeek

 John S. McClenahen, is an occasional essayist on the Web site of IndustryWeek, the executive management publication from which he retired in 2006. He began his journalism career as a broadcast journalist at Westinghouse Broadcasting’s KYW in Cleveland, Ohio. In May 1967, he joined Penton Media Inc. in Cleveland and in September 1967 was transferred to Washington, DC, the base from which for nearly 40 years he wrote primarily about national and international economics and politics, and corporate social responsibility.
      
      McClenahen, a native of Ohio now residing in Maryland, is an award-winning writer and photographer. He is the author of three books of poetry, most recently An Unexpected Poet (2013), and several books of photographs, including Black, White, and Shades of Grey (2014). He also is the author of a children’s book, Henry at His Beach (2014).
      
      His photograph “Provincetown: Fog Rising 2004” was selected for the Smithsonian Institution’s 2011 juried exhibition Artists at Work and displayed in the S. Dillon Ripley Center at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., from June until October 2011. Five of his photographs are in the collection of St. Lawrence University and displayed on campus in Canton, New York.
      
      John McClenahen’s essay “Incorporating America: Whitman in Context” was designated one of the five best works published in The Journal of Graduate Liberal Studies during the twelve-year editorship of R. Barry Leavis of Rollins College. John McClenahen’s several journalism prizes include the coveted Jesse H. Neal Award. He also is the author of the commemorative poem “Upon 50 Years,” celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the founding of Wolfson College Cambridge, and appearing in “The Wolfson Review.”
      
      John McClenahen received a B.A. (English with a minor in government) from St. Lawrence University, an M.A., (English) from Western Reserve University, and a Master of Arts in Liberal Studies from Georgetown University, where he also pursued doctoral studies. At St. Lawrence University, he was elected to academic honor societies in English and government and to Omicron Delta Kappa, the University’s highest undergraduate honor. John McClenahen was a participant in the 32nd Annual Wharton Seminars for Journalists at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. During the Easter Term of the 1986 academic year, John McClenahen was the first American to hold a prestigious Press Fellowship at Wolfson College, Cambridge, in the United Kingdom.
      
      John McClenahen has served on the Editorial Board of Confluence: The Journal of Graduate Liberal Studies and was co-founder and first editor of Liberal Studies at Georgetown. He has been a volunteer researcher on the William Steinway Diary Project at the Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C., and has been an assistant professorial lecturer at The George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
      

 

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