Industrialized countries are headed for moderate economic growth as a whole and the prospects for India and Russia are improving but forecasts for China, Brazil and the U.S. are less rosy, an OECD study said July 7.
"Moderate expansion lies ahead in the OECD area according to the latest composite leading indicators (CLI)," OECD said in its latest report. For the 29 industrialized nations that comprise the OECD, the indicator rose by 0.1 point in May to 109.9, though its six-month rate of change fell for the second month in a row.
For India, the CLI rose by one point in April and for Russia it gained 1.2 points in May. In both cases the six-month rates of change increased as well, for the fifth and fourth month respectively.
The OECD sees the six-month rate of change as a more reliable indicator of potential turning points because it combines a long-term growth rate with cyclical movements.
Its news for Brazil and China was somewhat less encouraging. In May, the CLI for Brazil fell by 1.3 points and its six-month rate dropped for the third straight month. Meanwhile, the Chinese indicator rose by 0.2 points in May, but the six-month trend fell for the second month in a row.
Things looked better for the eurozone, which posted an increase of 0.6 points in May and saw its six-month forecast rise for the 12th straight month.
Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2006
