The U.S. trade deficit shrank more than analysts expected in January on an exports boost, official data showed Thursday, but experts warned that tariff risks and war in the Middle East were casting a pall.

The trade gap was $54.5 billion for the month, pulling back 25.3% from December's level, the Commerce Department said.

Trade flows in the world's biggest economy have been buffeted by President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariffs since he returned to the White House last year, although a huge swath of them were struck down by the Supreme Court last month.

Another worry is how trade will react to the war roiling the Middle East, sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28.

"It's not until we receive the March or even the April data that we'll start to see the impacts of the conflict on U.S. exports and imports," said Nationwide Economist Oren Klachkin.

He called the situation "highly fluid" but expects U.S. exports to suffer more than imports, even as a surge in uncertainty due to war poses risks to imports via weaker business investment.

While January's data reflects a tariff system that is now outdated, trade uncertainty still clouds the outlook too.

Swiftly after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump tapped different authorities to impose a new, temporary 10% duty on imports.

On Wednesday, his administration announced new probes into dozens of trading partners with an eye on resurrecting his trade agenda.

'Short-lived'

"The surprise narrowing of the trade deficit in January is likely to be short-lived," said KPMG Senior Economist Meagan Schoenberger.

"Much of the reason for the narrowing was driven by trade in gold and extreme volatility in pharmaceuticals," she added.

She also expects another round of stocking up by businesses -- likely boosting imports -- as Trump's steep tariffs have yet to be fully restored via other laws.

"Tariffs have lost the spotlight to the Iranian conflict, but the issue hasn't gone away," Klachkin said.

January's deficit was below the $67 billion gap expected by surveys of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The narrowing came as exports jumped 5.5% to $302.1 billion, bolstered by industrial supplies and capital goods ranging from computers to civilian aircraft.

But exports of consumer goods like pharmaceuticals pulled back.

U.S. imports ticked down 0.7% to $356.6 billion, with declines seen in consumer goods, automobiles and industrial supplies.

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