IndustryWeek Summit (Economy)

Dec. 21, 2004
Nov. 20, 1998, Washington, D.C.
BRANDT: How much of a window do we have before presidential election takes over? ROGSTAD: Well, I'm not -- I'm going to take a political cycle off it. I'm talking about where this country is and the strength that it has and where it is going. And I don't predict a recession. I think we have got some slow down here, but I think that the health of the regime is in the republic is very strong. And will continue to be so in the foreseeable future. That overrides the election cycle. But we have got to be (inaudible). We are talking about some structural questions here. In laborforce, the skill level, entitlement overhang, now is the time to do this. So if you have got a situation where we were back in, God forbid, seven, eight, nine percent unemployment, the basis on which you had these discussions, (inaudible) have changed this drastically. And the question is how can we get our act together and with this town get some leadership and some seriousness about making some progress on this. And I think that is -- one we ought to note. JASINOWSKI: I would like to take a little more negative view on the economy. I certainly don't see a recession, but I think that will be a year of substantial economic slow down to the two percentage. And with the Y2K problem coming in at the end of the year, I think we will be quite -- and with fifty percent of the world in recession and the Y2K problem coming in toward the end of the year, I think that we are going to see a lot of tumultuous economic numbers and events. Particularly in the second half of the year. So it is imperative that we really put growth and all of the interest rate cutting and tax reduction and international financial reform issues at the top of the agenda. Or we could lose the growth and pace that we have had. And I think people just haven't seen it yet because they are so wrapped up with the market going up and the fact the economy is performing well because we are still catching up to the GM strike. I mean, there is just no reason to believe the first quarter is going to come in anywhere near the third or fourth quarter.
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